The legislative elections and the presidential election for the first time were held simultaneously, April 17th 2019. Especially for the presidential election, the electability of the candidates’ votes fluctuated. A series of political events in the country are suspected of influencing electability, seen from several surveys made by several survey institutions.
However, candidates debate is no longer a measure of the ups and downs of electability. In contrast to the challenger, Joko Widodo’s policy as incumbent is precisely in the spotlight and predicted to have considerable influence on the vote. Jokowi’s success in the 2019 presidential election was determined based on his performance with Jusuf Kalla for four years.
Several survey institutions have released their survey results related to the electability of the two pairs of candidates in the 2019 presidential election. Most of the results are still the same, Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin is still ahead of its competitors, the pair number 02, Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno. However, the electability of Prabowo-Sandi has increased significantly compared to the incumbent camp.
The incumbents are still superior based on the results of several survey institutions. First, Indonesian Political Indicators. Indonesian Political Indicator researcher, Burhanuddin Muhtad, said that if elections were held now, Jokowi was still ahead of Prabowo. Their survey results showed Jokowi-Ma’ruf electability’s was 54.9%, while Prabowo-Sandi 34.8%.
The survey was held from December 16-26 2018 with 1,220 respondents, a margin of error of 2.9%. As many as 9.2% of respondents have not made choice, while 1.1% said they did not want to vote for, nonvoters.
Second, Alvara. The electability of Jokowi-Ma’ruf in December 2019 was 54.3%, Prabowo-Sandi 35.1%. This means that Jokowi-Ma’ruf is still ahead of Prabowo-Sandi with a difference that can be said to be almost two digits.
Third, the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) Denny JA. They conducted a survey based on six bags of voters: Muslims, minorities, the poors, emak-emak or adult women, and students. Jokowi-Ma’ruf only lost in one bag of voters: students. Among Muslim voters, from 85.8% of respondents, Jokowi-Ma’ruf excelled with 49.5%, Prabowo-Sandi 35.4%.
In minority voters as many as 14,2% of respondents, Jokowi-Ma’ruf got 86.5%, Prabowo-Sandi 4.7%. Among 50.3% of poor respondents’ voters, Jokowi-Ma’ruf got 58.4%, Prabowo-Sandi 24.7%. Among 50% emak-emak respondents’ voters, Jokowi-Ma’ruf 57%, Prabowo-Sandi 27.8%. Prabowo-Sandi only leads on the student respondents’. Of the 11.5% of student respondents’ Prabowo-Sandi received 44%, Jokowi-Ma’ruf 37.7%.
Jokowi-Ma’ruf defeat among students is not surprising. Students tend to be critical, follow the news, always try to read data and facts accurately. Moreover, Jokowi’s policies related to the economics and recent law enforcement have often become blunders, make some of the students who had not yet determined their choice, then preferred Prabowo-Sandi.
Disappointment towards the incumbent camp did indeed allow students to abstain. However, some others tried other alternatives, Prabowo-Sandi. This is a gap that can be best utilized by the Prabowo-Sandi camp to attract voices from students.
Strength in Java
Meanwhile, former Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs, Rizal Ramli, is absolutely convinced that Jokowi-Ma’ruf will not win in the presidential election. According to him, the power centre of the 2019 presidential election is located on Java. He even predicted that Jokowi-Ma’ruf would lose more than 15%, and in West Java with 5%.
Jokowi’s strength, he stated, is in Central and East Java, and not significant, only around 5-10%. Jokowi is predicted to win in Central Kalimantan, West Kalimantan, South Kalimantan and East Kalimantan, on the contrary will lose in Sumatra except Lampung.
Still two months before the voting. Prabowo-Sandi’s camp still has time to justify Rizal Ramli’s predictions. Not just looking for opponents’ mistakes and weaknesses, but how to use these weaknesses to become strengths and attractiveness the undecided voters.
How about Jokowi-Ma’ruf? If they don’t want their electability continue to decline, Jokowi especially, he must be careful with the policies he made. Erroneous policies can backfire and threaten “number 01” in the 2019 presidential election.